Property Predictions for 2009
What will the next year bring? Andrew Oulsnam of Robert Oulsnam & Company gives predictions for the 2009 residential sales market and assesses the last 12 months.
In 2007, the Land Registry reported a total of 1.2 million sales transactions in the UK. In 2008, Andrew Oulsnam believes that this figure will have been halved.
The current market conditions have been brought about by too much money being available over recent years, leading to property prices overheating.
This has now been compounded by insufficient money being available, combined with a widespread lack of confidence in the Government and financial institutions.
Based on our experience across the local market place, property selling prices today are in excess of 20 per cent less than at their peak in the spring/early summer of 2007. Most building societies and financial institutions now agree with this.
Andrew Oulsnam believes property values will reduce by a further five to ten per cent over the next six months with very little further movement in values during the remainder of the year and through 2010.
People will always need to move, and as we progress through 2009, Andrew Oulsnam predicts a very slow improvement in the demand for property, with increasing levels of activity and transactions as the year progresses.
He envisages a 15 per cent increase in UK sales transactions is likely in 2009, compared with 2008. Based on my forecast that there will have been 600,000 sales transactions in 2008 and 690,000 transactions in 2009 - still 44 per cent less than in 2007."
There will be a slow and gradual improvement in the market this year in the number of sales but prices will continue to fall levelling out in the late summer. Prices are unlikely to rise until 2011 and will not return to their 2007 peak until between 2013 and 2015.
Andrew Oulsnam is a Chartered Surveyor and has personal experience of the property market locally for over 40 years.